Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 36.291888 39.300690 42.593946 46.495095 51.028963 56.181253 62.551810
2025-05-25 31.426041 35.291865 39.799761 45.540039 52.802582 61.905814 74.570265
2025-06-01 28.446228 32.671104 37.798624 44.647465 53.840908 66.234415 85.191059
2025-06-08 26.090239 30.438961 35.868497 43.378648 53.923362 68.986950 93.960458
2025-06-15 25.220104 29.923903 35.980757 44.692732 57.579048 77.329343 113.680652
2025-06-22 23.972372 28.784707 35.119710 44.497220 58.927253 82.313444 129.360587
2025-06-29 22.707853 27.514470 33.949958 43.692251 59.165855 85.433441 142.587972
2025-07-06 21.443362 26.155870 32.544861 42.380934 58.386808 86.569453 152.013063
2025-07-13 21.137299 26.075919 32.916622 43.761491 62.188838 96.905432 188.615441
2025-07-20 20.714951 25.798839 32.969915 44.630398 65.220811 106.534620 231.035234
2025-07-27 20.283217 25.476609 32.923115 45.316280 68.007888 116.447690 284.823328
2025-08-03 19.677947 24.869165 32.402144 45.157184 69.161667 122.967498 334.610872
2025-08-10 18.957420 24.082578 31.595006 44.503398 69.382092 127.639832 386.219762
2025-08-17 18.232133 23.259203 30.689076 43.612014 69.023385 130.825796 438.197417
2025-08-24 17.577351 22.510648 29.857531 42.781016 68.676456 133.996606 499.954071
2025-08-31 16.892248 21.689415 28.870200 41.598421 67.433864 134.289558 544.083053
2025-09-07 16.769014 21.702725 29.205026 42.823178 71.619336 152.679591 854.386441
2025-09-14 16.364975 21.271745 28.797815 42.641063 72.602578 161.283738 1152.620252
2025-09-21 15.874512 20.690117 28.116450 41.890859 72.150845 164.726203 1426.702784
2025-09-28 15.320031 19.992515 27.216295 40.667399 70.425040 162.915964 1564.736321
2025-10-05 15.273635 20.075769 27.608216 41.955414 75.036617 188.350565 4512.118695
2025-10-12 15.138042 20.013172 27.750421 42.765120 78.618235 212.676049 59895.146094
2025-10-19 14.977556 19.904100 27.806102 43.403753 81.886817 238.868756 NaN